MINNEAPOLIS — Snapping a seven-game losing streak with back-to-back series wins over the Washington Nationals and the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers has the ever-volatile Minnesota Twins heading in a positive direction again on this roller coaster of a season. Of course, their entire concept of momentum has probably lost all meaning at this point.
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With the one-third mark of the schedule arriving later this week, the Twins are 28-24, an 87-win pace that’s identical to last season’s division-winning record. But this time around it puts them only in third place, behind the American League Central-leading Cleveland Guardians and the upstart Kansas City Royals, in town for a four-game series at Target Field starting Monday.
But first, here are three Twins takeaways after a weekend spent taking two out of three games from the reigning champs.
Déjà vu for Pablo López
Pablo López has been through this before.
Last year, right around this time, back-to-back poor starts inflated his ERA to 4.54 on June 1.
This time, his ERA sits at 5.25 after getting knocked around by the Rangers and Nationals in consecutive outings last week.
Man on fire. #StraightUpTX pic.twitter.com/PDXgQcurRE
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) May 26, 2024
His underlying numbers are also similar compared to last June 1:
| LÓPEZ TIME FRAME | ERA | SO% | BB% | HR% | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last season, through June 1 | 4.54 | 29.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .301 |
This season, through May 26 | 5.25 | 27.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | .306 |
López’s strikeout rate is down a hair, and he’s allowed homers slightly more often, but he’s also cut way down on walks. Then and now, xERA, xFIP and other advanced metrics show him as performing closer to a 3.00 ERA than a 5.00 ERA. And last year, the advanced metrics were correct, providing a path forward that López and the Twins are hoping he can travel again.
“There’s some elements of poor luck for him right now based on sequencing of hits,” pitching coach Pete Maki said. “Batting average on balls in play not going his way, and he’s giving up some homers, and the homers are coming with guys on base. It’s a recipe to have your ERA be about two points above your xFIP. He’s doing a lot of things that lead to not giving up runs.”
López responded to last season’s adversity with one of the best stretches of his career, posting a 3.15 ERA with 148 strikeouts in 122 2/3 innings over his final 20 starts. And then he dazzled in the playoffs, by which point everyone had forgotten about any early-season issues. Can he climb out of a familiar hole and make these recent struggles another long-forgotten memory?
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“If there’s a silver lining, it’s the fact that I’m feeling good and I’m healthy,” López said. “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Obviously the results aren’t there, but (last year) is something that might prevent me from firing the alarms and thinking I have to change too much. It’s baseball. There’s a lot of stats. It evens out. I’ve just got to stick through the process.”
López’s next scheduled start is Friday night against the Astros in Houston, the opponent and the site of his biggest postseason triumph last October.
Chris Paddack’s first 10 starts
Chris Paddack’s comeback from a second Tommy John surgery has gone about as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped through 10 starts. His first few outings were shaky, including a particularly rough April 16 game versus the powerful Baltimore Orioles lineup, but since April 22 he’s made seven starts with a 3.05 ERA and 41-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41 1/3 innings.
Paddack’s start-to-start velocity has varied a lot, but overall his fastball has averaged 93.4 mph, up slightly from the five starts he made in 2022 prior to surgery. He’s generated a career-high whiff rate on the pitch by working up in the zone more, but he’s also been less reliant than ever on fastballs due to developing a new slider to go with his slow curveball and trusty changeup.
Always considered a fastball-changeup pitcher, Paddack has a usage rate above 10 percent on four pitches for the first time in his career. His changeup hasn’t been quite as reliable as usual, and the slider is still a work in progress, but the expansion of his pitch mix and ability to throw them all for strikes has made him far less predictable to hitters.
𝗣𝘂𝘁 𝗮 𝗞 𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘁 🔥
🔟 strikeouts in 7️⃣ scoreless innings for Chris Paddack! #MNTwins | #MLB pic.twitter.com/sXhQpfJuM2
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 23, 2024
Anyone returning from elbow surgery is going to have a somewhat limited workload, but the Twins have been surprisingly willing to let Paddack pitch deep into games so far. His average pitches and innings per start are both career highs, including two of the four highest pitch counts of his life and a career-high eight innings against the Guardians on May 19.
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“We’ve done a lot of tests in the weight room to make sure that my body isn’t shutting down on me as I’m getting close to 60 innings, which is the most I’ve thrown in three or four years,” Paddack said.
Paddack is on pace for 30 starts and 163 innings, totals he’s never reached in his career. He’s been allowed to keep rolling when things are going well, but he’s also been asked to eat innings when things are going poorly, which is perhaps the surest sign that the Twins aren’t too worried yet about his workload piling up as they closely monitor his velocity and strength.
“Coming off the second surgery, we’re certainly aware of all those things,” bench coach Jayce Tingler said. “When he has all of the pitches working, he’s pretty efficient. You have those days, you kind of let him go. There will probably be days later on in the year where maybe we can take an inning or two off. But right now, he’s in a great spot. He’s throwing the ball well.”
Jose Miranda playing too well to leave
Royce Lewis is close to returning from the injured list, and when that happens the Twins will need to drop a hitter to make roster space. They’ve primarily used Jose Miranda as the fill-in third baseman in Lewis’ absence, making him a natural choice to send back to the minors, but he’s seemingly played too well to lose from a lineup struggling for consistent production.
Healthy again after his 2023 season was wrecked by a shoulder injury that eventually required offseason surgery, Miranda has hit .277/.312/.445 with four homers and eight doubles in 37 games. His 120 OPS+ tops the 114 OPS+ he posted as a rookie in 2022 and ranks fourth on the Twins among the 12 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances.
Take a lap, Mr. Miranda! 👏 pic.twitter.com/XRnxhDyMsM
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 19, 2024
That’s just not the type of hitter any inconsistent lineup can afford to send down, especially given how little production the Twins have received from bat-driven positions. Twins first basem*n and designated hitters rank 21st out of 30 teams in OPS, and those are the two other spots Miranda can fill while also continuing to see time at third base when Lewis gets a day off.
“His shoulder is in a good spot, the range of motion, the strength,” Tingler said. “That’s what we’re seeing. We look at the swing, it’s very similar to 2022. He’s got a very good swing, a flat swing. He’s able to hit the fastball up in the zone, and then when he’s staying back, he can hit the secondary pitches as well. I think the main thing is the shoulder is in a good spot.”
(Photo of Pablo López: Nick Wosika / USA Today)
Aaron Gleeman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Minnesota Twins. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus and a senior writer for NBC Sports. He was named the 2021 NSMA Minnesota Sportswriter of the Year and co-hosts the "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast. Follow Aaron on Twitter @AaronGleeman
